🇨🇺 Cuba Regime Fragility Index
10-indicator OSINT model · Baseline: Jan 1, 2026 · Sources: CiberCuba · 14ymedio · El Toque · CubaNet · Granma · Havana Times · MarineTraffic
🔄 Auto-refreshes news feed every hour · Graph extends automatically as new days begin
Next refresh: 60:00 · Last updated: —
Cumulative Fragility Score — Daily
Hover for daily detail · Dashed lines = key events
Indicator Reference — Historical Collapse Context
Weight × reflects relative importance derived from 20th–21st century authoritarian collapse studies
📡 Live News Feed — Top 10 Most Relevant Articles (Last 24 hrs)
Fetching from Cuban sources…
🔬 OSINT Intelligence Layer — Non-RSS Sources
El Toque rates · MarineTraffic AIS · CSIS analysis · Qurium cyber · GlobalSecurity · Bertelsmann BTI
⚡ El Toque Eléctrico — Live Parallel Market Rates
Rule 2 · Currency
🚢 MarineTraffic — Cuba AIS Vessel Tracking
Rule 1 · Patronage
Live AIS transponder feed · Tanker class vessels (types 80–89) · Cuba EEZ ·
Watch for dark-fleet behavior (transponder shutoffs near Havana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos terminals).
Tanker arrivals/departures feed directly into
Rule 1 (Energy Patronage) scoring. ·
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🏛 CSIS — Cuba Hidden Reach & Security Analysis
Military / SIGINT
Fetching CSIS publications…
🔐 Qurium — ETECSA Cyber & Network Monitoring
Rule 6 · Info Saturation
🛡 GlobalSecurity.org — FAR Military Reference
Military
📊 Bertelsmann BTI 2026 — Structural Risk Scorecard
Rules 5 · 8 · 9 · 10
Scores are OSINT-derived estimates. Event shocks calibrated from NPR, Al Jazeera, Reuters, CiberCuba, El Toque Eléctrico, and CSIS reporting. Not predictive.
TRANKA VIDA · trancado.com
© Professor TRANKA VIDA. All rights reserved. Cuba Regime Fragility Index is an independent OSINT research tool. Not affiliated with any government or political organization.
Data presented for academic and research purposes only. Scoring methodology derived from comparative authoritarian collapse studies.