Tranka Vida
TRANKA VIDA
trancado.com

🇨🇺 Cuba Regime Fragility Index

10-indicator OSINT model · Baseline: Jan 1, 2026 · Sources: CiberCuba · 14ymedio · El Toque · CubaNet · Granma · Havana Times · MarineTraffic
Baseline Jan 1
Current Total
Total Change
🔄 Auto-refreshes news feed every hour · Graph extends automatically as new days begin Next refresh: 60:00  ·  Last updated:
Cumulative Fragility Score — Daily Hover for daily detail · Dashed lines = key events
Indicator Reference — Historical Collapse Context Weight × reflects relative importance derived from 20th–21st century authoritarian collapse studies
📡 Live News Feed — Top 10 Most Relevant Articles (Last 24 hrs) Fetching from Cuban sources…
Contacting RSS feeds…
🔬 OSINT Intelligence Layer — Non-RSS Sources El Toque rates · MarineTraffic AIS · CSIS analysis · Qurium cyber · GlobalSecurity · Bertelsmann BTI
⚡ El Toque Eléctrico — Live Parallel Market Rates Rule 2 · Currency
Fetching rates…
🚢 MarineTraffic — Cuba AIS Vessel Tracking Rule 1 · Patronage
Live AIS transponder feed · Tanker class vessels (types 80–89) · Cuba EEZ · Watch for dark-fleet behavior (transponder shutoffs near Havana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos terminals). Tanker arrivals/departures feed directly into Rule 1 (Energy Patronage) scoring. · Open full map →
🏛 CSIS — Cuba Hidden Reach & Security Analysis Military / SIGINT
Fetching CSIS publications…
🔐 Qurium — ETECSA Cyber & Network Monitoring Rule 6 · Info Saturation
Fetching Qurium reports…
🛡 GlobalSecurity.org — FAR Military Reference Military
📊 Bertelsmann BTI 2026 — Structural Risk Scorecard Rules 5 · 8 · 9 · 10
Loading BTI scores…
📅 Annotated Events
Scores are OSINT-derived estimates. Event shocks calibrated from NPR, Al Jazeera, Reuters, CiberCuba, El Toque Eléctrico, and CSIS reporting. Not predictive.